What will the global food system look like as the Coronavirus pandemia spreads? What is the impact on stakeholders and infrastructures? It is definitely too early to have answers, but it may be time to start thinking ahead.
As we are still experiencing the onset of the coronavirus pandemic, we are all anxious and worried – understandably so – about our own health and the wellbeing of our loved ones and those around us. As many countries around the world impose severe measures to limit the diffusion of the virus, citizens are invited to practice social distancing and to work from home when possible, an opportunity available to those employed in the knowledge sectors but impossible for manual and service jobs.
Right now, we are mostly focusing on making sure we have enough food at home in case things go south for real. As new restrictions are introduced, consumers who have the means to do so are emptying stores and supermarkets and filling up their pantries. How will food banks fare in this new climate? At present, we receive reassurances that food is still available and shelves can be easily restocked, but the consequences on those living on public support, the homeless, and all those who will be losing their jobs due to the crisis are unclear. Governments should keep an eye on the weakest segments of the population, which will be probably be affected disproportionately, both in terms of access and entitlements.
For those whose fridges are full, food has acquired a whole new relevance. I see my family and friends in Italy, who are officially, mandated to stay at home as much as possible, are cooking a lot out of boredom, in order to do something as a family, and to maintain a semblance of normality. People are posting meal pictures and swapping recipes on social media. Initiatives to create oral histories around food are being launched. A meme is circulating about which the best paid jobs will be after the epidemics: psychologists, divorce lawyers, and dietitians.
If we try to shift our attention outside of our homes, it is hard to forecast what’s coming. Restaurants and bars are already being heavily affected, as closures are imposed in different parts of the world. In countries where home deliveries are a common habit, these establishments may survive, although bruised. Elsewhere, we can imagine they may not be able to recover, which would mean the end for small business that give jobs to so many (including those who would have a hard time finding other occupations). Also, measures to protect those physically making the deliveries will have to be put in place.
What will happen to food production? It is only possible to make hypotheses… Farming could be directly impacted by demands for greater social distancing, especially at harvest time when workers work shoulder to shoulder. Will this lead to an increase in mechanization and automation? Smaller farms with fewer workers may be less impacted, as their work organization tend to requires less contact, at least on the field. But how will distribution networks be impacted? As farmers’ markets and other kinds of shopping may be limited, to whom would small farmers sell their foods? Community supported agriculture and cooperatives may provide some support. And how will the pandemic affect food transportation?
Moreover, in many parts of the world farmers tend to be older, if not elderly, which makes them particularly susceptible to the virus. Is there a new generation ready to replace them? Will some young farmers who had moved to cities looking for jobs move back to the countryside? The same goes for fishing and animal farming. It seems that the virus is not transmitted to animals, but it is paramount to make sure that somebody will be taking care of them, to ensure uninterrupted provisioning and the animals’ wellbeing.
Overall, the impact on infrastructure is hard to assess at the moment. Will international trade slow down, as many countries are closing their borders? How will transnational corporations adapt to the changes? Will food-related stocks surge in a market otherwise heavily damage by the crisis? How will all this impact countries whose economies rely on the export of food, especially products such as coffee, cocoa, and tropical fruits? Demand is not likely to decrease, but how will be the cargo industry change? Will new sanitary regulations be mandated on imports? Will stakeholders be able to quickly adapt to the changing trade landscape, especially in less developed countries?
These technical issues may be exasperated by forms of nationalism and xenophobia generated by the fear of importing food from countries that are particularly affected by the pandemic. During its first days, when nobody really knew was happening, a video produced in France circulated on social media about coronavirus-infected pizza. The Italian government reacted by launching the #mangiaitaliano (eat Italian) campaign to support the national food industry. The song “Mangia italiano anche tu” (eat Italian, you too), basically a list of well-know Italian products mentioned on the melody on a song whose original title was “Ma il cielo è sempre più blu” (the sky is more and more blue) became viral.
Forecasting designer Li Edelkoort has described the situation as a “quarantine of consumption.” A global recession is inevitable, she argues, but “the virus will show how slowing and shutting down can produce a better environment which will surely be visible on a large scale. And this is where I am hopeful for: another and better system to be put in place with more respect for human labour and conditions.” The human cost of these epochal shifts, however, cannot be calculated.
This is were designers working on food systems may offer important contributions. As they are used to thinking in terms of “wicked problems” for which no simple solutions exist, they are trained to quickly assess a situation to come up with viable interventions. Designers may be well equipped to suggest practical actions to mitigate the effect of the crisis. Hopefully they will do so keeping humans at the center of their projects, embracing forms of participation through which all stakeholders involved may express their priorities, needs and values towards finding possible solutions. We are all in this together, whether we want to be or not.